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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.